Real estate data (average price, marketing times, etc.) is always delayed. Unlike things like stocks and bonds where there is a running ticker telling the public exactly where prices are, real estate transactions are not instantaneous. Typically residential transactions take 30-60 days to close and commercial transactions can take three months or more. So when the sale is finally recorded in the public record the public is not seeing what the market conditions were on the day of closing but rather what the market conditions were on the day the contract was signed months prior. The great news for our clients is we work at an office that has lots of high producing agents just like ourselves. Every week at the Windermere Realty Trust’s company meeting we get market insights that are not available to the public and not even available to most agents in the market. This is because the topic of conversation is what is happening in the market right now, not two months ago.
One metric showing weakness in Portland is marketing times. As evidenced in the chart below showing average total marketing times metro-wide, although following the typical seasonal pattern of the dog-days-of-August, it is now taking longer to sell properties than both 2016 and 2017. Digging a bit deeper, the higher-end of the market is feeling it more than the lower-end. Days on market in July for single-family homes in Multnomah County priced over $500K increased 30% over two years ago and 20% over one year ago. The slow-down has been tempered a bit for homes priced below $500K, but a similar pattern is developing.
So here is the real deal: Based on our own recent deals and discussions with brokers in our office, longer marketing times are going to be the norm for the foreseeable future. In other words, this pattern that the data is starting to indicate will be sticking with us. Future market data will eventually show this, but I wanted to give our clients a heads up!